A closer relationship with the EU will be increasingly difficult to develop.
Keir Starmer, who is widely expected to become the UK’s next prime minister, has firmly ruled out any full or partial reversal of Brexit during the next parliament. However, the question remains whether he could revisit the issue in a future parliament after that. Despite the political will, the obstacles seem insurmountable.
The central challenge is not merely political, but lies in the growing regulatory divergence between the UK and the European Union. Since Brexit formally occurred in 2020, it is the EU that has moved more dramatically in terms of legislation and regulation. The European Green Deal, a complex package of laws, is just one example of how the EU has expanded its regulatory reach.
In addition to environmental regulations, the EU has shifted toward greater protectionism, particularly in the digital and industrial sectors. Under the leadership of Thierry Breton, the French industry commissioner, the EU has introduced a range of restrictive measures, from the regulation of artificial intelligence to the Digital Markets Act, which imposes tight regulations on how digital platforms and social media companies can operate.
Furthermore, the EU is taking steps to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, another example of its increasingly protectionist stance. These developments raise significant questions for the UK’s post-Brexit regulatory framework.
For the UK, aligning itself with these new EU regulations would likely be difficult and potentially counterproductive. The UK may find it unwise to adopt many of the EU’s policies, particularly in areas such as digital regulation and trade, where the UK could maintain a more flexible approach.
Thus, even if Starmer wanted to rebuild a closer relationship with the EU, the regulatory divergence would pose a major stumbling block. This divergence not only complicates any potential negotiations but also highlights the long-term consequences of Brexit, which will continue to affect UK-EU relations for years to come.
In the end, the prospect of a significant rapprochement between the UK and the EU seems increasingly unlikely, as both sides pursue diverging regulatory paths. The Brexit legacy will continue to shape the future of UK-EU relations, making it difficult for any Labour government to easily undo the separation.