Political chaos, confusion, and incompetence are almost inevitable after no single grouping wins a parliamentary majority
Every election in France now feels like a referendum on Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). The results from 7 July reflected this. Although the RN failed to secure a majority after a heated parliamentary race against an informal but highly united front spanning from the far-left to Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc, the outcome still leaves many uncertainties. On one hand, this could be seen as a blow to Le Pen’s party; on the other, it reveals the fragility of the opposition to RN and the shifting political landscape in France.
In a traditional setup, the RN would face a moderate and cohesive mainstream bloc, led by figures such as Jacques Chirac or Macron. But that era now seems distant. Macron, in a bid to rebuild a stable political front, called for the dissolution of the National Assembly in June. His hope was to create a new majority by appealing to the socialist and green factions of the left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front (NFP), which won big on 7 July. However, Macron’s strategy misfired, and it appears the NFP will remain united, at least for now.
This scenario presents a paradox. The RN’s relative weakness in securing an outright victory in the second round of elections is tempered by the reality that the opposition to Le Pen is fragmented and unreliable. The lack of a coherent centrist force in parliament could lead to significant political chaos and infighting, making it difficult for any government to function effectively. The very fragmentation that may have slowed the RN’s rise could also weaken efforts to challenge it.
One of the most pressing issues in this post-election environment is how the disparate factions of the French left and center-left will maintain unity in the face of increasing polarization. The NFP, which emerged as the main victor on 7 July, includes both socialists and greens, groups with historically conflicting priorities. Keeping these factions united will be a monumental task, especially given their ideological differences. Any cracks in this coalition could pave the way for RN to gain ground.
Furthermore, the absence of a single, unified bloc opposing RN could result in confusion and incompetence in governance. In a fragmented parliament, alliances may shift unexpectedly, leaving France without a clear path forward. The potential for gridlock is high, and the French electorate may soon realize that the lack of a strong majority could hinder the government’s ability to address critical issues, from economic reforms to security concerns.
The outcome of these elections may ultimately hinge on whether Macron and his allies can revive a meaningful centrist coalition or whether the NFP will prove to be a stable opposition force. However, there’s no guarantee that such a coalition will hold, given the growing disillusionment with mainstream politics across Europe. As the political landscape in France continues to shift, the possibility of a more polarized, unstable future looms.
The challenge ahead for France is finding a way to govern effectively in the face of growing extremism on both sides of the political spectrum. If the opposition to Le Pen’s RN remains fractured, the party could continue to grow in influence. And without a united front, the prospect of a truly democratic and functional government becomes increasingly uncertain.