Despite his conviction, Trump’s path to the White House remains viable.
On 30 May, Donald Trump made history as the first former U.S. president convicted in a criminal court, found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records by a Manhattan jury. This verdict makes Trump a convicted felon, facing up to four years in prison. His sentencing, set for 11 July, falls only a few days before the Republican National Convention, where he remains the leading candidate.
The conviction highlights an unprecedented situation in American politics: a convicted individual running for the presidency with the support of his party. The Republican Party’s commitment to Trump stands despite his legal entanglements, including this recent criminal conviction and a prior civil court finding that held him liable for sexual abuse.
Trump’s legal troubles, however, have not dimmed his appeal to a significant portion of the Republican electorate. In fact, his supporters view these cases as politically motivated attacks, reinforcing their allegiance to him as he campaigns against what he terms a biased legal system. For Trump, this narrative has become central to his campaign, positioning him as a fighter against institutional corruption.
Many political analysts argue that his conviction may have minimal impact on his political viability. With Trump’s base seemingly unshaken by his legal issues, his path to the GOP nomination remains open, even as he faces the prospect of a prison sentence. His loyalists appear unfazed, seeing the legal challenges as confirmation of his stance against a so-called “deep state.”
The upcoming Republican National Convention could see Trump formally nominated while awaiting sentencing, creating an unprecedented scenario in U.S. electoral history. While Trump’s legal battles pose logistical and political challenges, his strategy of portraying himself as a victim of systemic bias has resonated with many voters, keeping his