Comments by Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump are an alarm bell for America’s allies.
Writing from the Nato summit in Madrid last June, in the wake of the US Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, I warned that Europe needed to draw wider lessons about the risks of relying too heavily on American power. Europeans “must do [more] to prepare for a world of fracturing or distracted American power, a world that drew a step closer with the Supreme Court’s ruling on Roe v. Wade,” I wrote. This perspective became less popular in the months that followed, as Joe Biden’s presidency gained traction and a hint of the 1990s stability returned to the transatlantic relationship.
However, nine months later, the fundamental facts remain stark, and in some ways, they have become more pronounced. Europe remains undeniably, inescapably, and embarrassingly reliant on the US for its security. According to the Ukraine Support Tracker from Kiel University, as of mid-January, the US’s military support for Ukraine amounted to €44.3 billion, far outstripping the combined European contributions of €4.9 billion from the UK and €2.4 billion from Poland. Without American support, the front lines in Ukraine might well have been pushing farther west by now. This heavy reliance on US aid, however, remains vulnerable to the unpredictability of US domestic politics.
If anything has changed since last June, it’s that the risk of an isolationist Republican presidential candidate has grown as the 2024 election approaches. Currently, it seems likely that either Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will secure the Republican nomination. While it’s also true that Biden now seems poised to go into a contest with either candidate stronger than initially expected, the race will likely be tight. Polls from Quinnipiac University and Morning Consult place Biden and DeSantis just one percentage point apart, at 47-46% and 43-42%, respectively; a Biden-Trump race would also be close, with Biden at 49-45% and Trump at 43-42%. These narrow margins are deeply concerning, especially considering where DeSantis and Trump stand on America’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense.
For Europe, this is more than just a theoretical issue. The prospect of a Republican president who may reduce or even withdraw US support for Ukraine could send shockwaves through the EU and NATO. As the future of the transatlantic relationship teeters on the potential election of one of these candidates, Europe will need to prepare for the very real possibility that American priorities may shift dramatically, potentially undermining European security interests. The risks of a more isolationist US administration are now more apparent than ever, and the consequences could be felt across the globe.
America’s allies, particularly in Europe, must take these political dynamics into account when planning for the future. The days of unwavering American commitment to global security may not be as certain as they once were. Both Europe and the US’s adversaries are watching closely, and the geopolitical landscape could shift in ways that few are prepared for.