If Democrat voter turnout is as expected, it’s good news for Kamala Harris
In the 2016 election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the polls got a lot wrong. They were particularly wrong when it came to states where white voters without a college education were a dominant electoral force. In Michigan, for example, the polls said Clinton would win by four points. Instead, Trump won by two points. In Iowa, the polls suggested Trump was ahead by one point, but he ended up winning it by eight. In Wisconsin, Clinton was projected to clear the state by five points. She ended up losing by eight points.
The miscalculations of 2016 left many questioning the reliability of polling, especially as it relates to predicting the outcomes of key swing states. The gap between poll predictions and actual results in the industrial Midwest led to widespread rethinking of how data is collected and analyzed in relation to voter behavior. In particular, the unexpected surge of Trump supporters in these regions prompted polling organizations to reassess their models, looking more closely at education levels, demographics, and how to better account for certain voting behaviors that are less predictable.
However, in the 2024 election, there is a reason to believe that the polls might be more accurate, especially if the expected turnout for the Democratic vote holds. Kamala Harris, running as the Democratic candidate, has a significant chance of benefiting from this anticipated increase in turnout. For her campaign, the numbers appear to be more favorable than in 2016, as analysts believe that younger voters, women, and minority groups—who typically lean Democratic—will come out in larger numbers than before.
Polling organizations have adjusted their methodologies over the past eight years, focusing more on demographic shifts, early voting trends, and changing attitudes toward both major parties. These adjustments could provide a clearer picture of the race this time around. While there is still uncertainty, especially in battleground states, the polling data could prove to be more aligned with the actual outcome, especially if Harris’s campaign can successfully mobilize her base and resonate with key voting groups.
That said, the history of polling in the U.S. still serves as a cautionary tale. Many variables—such as late-breaking events, unexpected changes in voter sentiment, and challenges in accurately predicting turnout—still pose significant challenges. Despite the best efforts to adjust methodologies, polling is not foolproof, and surprises in voter behavior can still upset the most well-constructed forecasts.
However, assuming that the projected surge in Democratic turnout holds true, the polls could very well be correct in predicting a favorable outcome for Harris. Voter enthusiasm and the ability to turn out key demographic groups will be crucial in determining whether this optimistic outlook for the Democrats proves accurate. As the election day approaches, all eyes will be on the final voter turnout and how it aligns with pre-election expectations.