Donald Trump has won the Iowa caucus, but don’t bet on him winning the White House.
On January 15, Iowans braved sub-zero temperatures and wind chills as low as -35°C to participate in the Iowa Republican caucus, the first contest of the 2024 presidential race. The harsh weather seemed fitting for the state of American politics, where Trump’s predicted victory appeared to confirm the political freeze that has persisted since his rise in 2016. His commanding performance in Iowa, however, was followed by a speech that painted a picture of political immobility, reinforcing his continued dominance of the GOP.
Trump, speaking after his win, showed a more subdued side, mocking rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis with familiar informality—calling them “Nikki” and “Ron”—while speaking of national unity and healing. The rhetoric contrasted sharply with his recent vow to use government power to target “communists, Marxists, fascists, and radical left thugs.” Instead, he presented himself as a figure of sympathy, reflecting on personal loss and adopting the tone of a weary saint. Despite facing four criminal indictments and 91 charges, Trump’s remarks were laced with an air of forgiveness, rendering the moment both unsettling and captivating.
Haley, despite finishing third in Iowa, claimed that the results had narrowed the race to a two-person contest. Her performance, though trailing Trump and DeSantis in Iowa, placed her in an intriguing position for the upcoming New Hampshire primary. In New Hampshire, unlike Iowa, independents are allowed to vote in the Republican primary, which could give Haley an edge. Her more moderate appeal, contrasting with Trump’s populism, might help her attract voters beyond the MAGA base. Although Trump maintains a stronghold, the race remains far from settled, and Haley’s surge in New Hampshire could offer a potential challenge to his dominance.
While Trump’s victory in Iowa continues to propel him forward, it remains uncertain whether his momentum will carry him all the way to the White House. The primary contest is far from over, with Haley and other contenders still fighting for a shot at the Republican nomination. Trump’s political force may be undeniable, but whether it will be enough to secure another term in the Oval Office remains to be seen.