Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro both tested the democratic system and lost power. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could be next.
The age we live in is undeniably shaped by authoritarian strongman leaders. Figures such as Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro, Viktor Orbán, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have significantly influenced global politics in recent years. These leaders pioneered the rise of polarizing identity politics, challenging democratic institutions and norms. All of them led major democracies at the turn of the decade, pushing these nations to the brink with their leadership styles. They demonstrated what the Venezuelan journalist Moisés Naím referred to as the “three Ps”—populism, polarization, and post-truth.
However, the landscape of strongman politics has shifted in recent years. Trump and Bolsonaro have lost power, signaling that their influence, while powerful, is not invincible. Orbán has managed to hold on to power in Hungary, Netanyahu has both lost and regained his position in Israel, and Erdoğan, who is facing a crucial presidential election in May 2023, may soon follow in the footsteps of his fallen counterparts. Some observers suggest that the strongman surge has already peaked, with prominent American diplomat Samantha Power asserting that “early 2022 may prove to be a high-water mark for authoritarianism.” Yet, this might be too early a conclusion.
The recent fall of some high-profile strongmen, such as Trump and Bolsonaro, has provided insight into how democracies can push back against authoritarianism. These transitions reveal that, while strongmen can exert considerable control, their grip on power is not guaranteed indefinitely. The political tides can turn, and the public’s patience with autocratic rule can wear thin. At the same time, the continued influence of figures like Orbán and Netanyahu suggests that even in democratic systems, authoritarian tendencies can find ways to persist or resurface.
Erdoğan’s upcoming election in Turkey presents another critical moment in this evolving trend. If he loses power, it could signal the waning influence of authoritarian leaders in global politics. Yet, the outcome of this election remains uncertain, and it is possible that the wave of authoritarianism is far from over. The past few years have highlighted the complex dynamics of power and resistance, illustrating that while authoritarianism faces challenges, it is far from being defeated entirely.
