The drumbeat of war is growing louder in Washington, where the political class is transfixed by Beijing.
Politics often rewards simplicity over nuance, especially in times of crisis. When faced with a serious threat to national security, there’s a strong desire for leaders to display unwavering strength and determination. This expectation is particularly evident in the United States, a nation built on the belief in its own exceptionalism and the idea that it is the world’s greatest power. However, this mindset can lead to policies that are not grounded in careful consideration but rather in grand gestures of patriotism.
The Iraq War is a powerful reminder of what happens when such hubris and moral absolutism dominate foreign policy. After the September 11 attacks in 2001, President George W. Bush launched the War on Terror, a global initiative framed as a battle against all who sought to spread terror. In this campaign, the U.S. justified military interventions, including the invasion of Iraq, by linking Saddam Hussein to terrorist organizations, despite a lack of solid evidence. Critics were dismissed, told they didn’t understand the bigger picture. But history shows that this approach led to disastrous consequences, leaving the U.S. entangled in an unwinnable war.
Today, there are worrying signs that Washington is repeating this mistake, but with China in the role of the perceived enemy. Tensions with China have escalated in recent years, with U.S. policymakers increasingly framing the country as a dire threat to American security and global stability. From trade wars to military posturing in the South China Sea, the rhetoric has grown more intense, and the idea of confronting China has begun to dominate the political discourse. This shift mirrors the prelude to the Iraq War, where a combination of fear, ideological certainty, and strategic miscalculations set the stage for conflict.
In both cases, the push for war is fueled by moral certainty—an unquestioned belief that the U.S. is on the side of good and that any actions taken against its adversaries are justified. However, such thinking ignores the complexities of international relations and the potential unintended consequences of military escalation. Just as the invasion of Iraq led to regional instability, widespread suffering, and the rise of extremist groups, a confrontation with China could have similar repercussions.
The U.S. is entering an era where its relationship with China could define the next phase of global politics. Yet, as history has shown, simplistic and confrontational approaches to complex geopolitical situations rarely lead to successful outcomes. The U.S. needs to learn from its past mistakes and resist the temptation to frame the China issue in moral absolutes, as it did with Iraq. There is a need for diplomatic engagement, careful negotiation, and a recognition that the future of international relations will require cooperation as much as competition.
The path forward requires the U.S. to recognize that not every conflict can be solved through military might or moral righteousness. The potential for catastrophic consequences should be enough to make policymakers question the wisdom of taking an aggressive stance toward China without fully understanding the global repercussions. The Iraq War serves as a cautionary tale, but the U.S. seems to be once again on the edge of repeating history.
As the U.S. prepares for its next moral crusade, it’s essential to ask: will the lessons of Iraq be learned, or will the cycle of hubris and miscalculation continue? If the U.S. doesn’t change course, it risks creating another conflict that will have far-reaching consequences, not just for America but for the entire world.
