Democrats are blasé about the Florida governor, while Republicans know he won’t beat Donald Trump.
If you’re seeking a perspective on American politics, Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, provides an interesting one. Christie, who was once deeply embedded in Donald Trump’s world but has since distanced himself, shared his political insights at a corporate event last year. Speaking to a group of European bankers after a list of retired European political leaders, his speech stood out like a show-stopping performance. It was as though a charismatic Roman senator was addressing a foreign delegation, declaring who the next emperor would be.
Christie’s political theory has resonated with many, especially as we watch the current landscape unfold. His first rule is simple: a generic Republican will beat a generic Democrat. This is based on two powerful trends: the cultural integration of Hispanic Americans into the white majority and the growing influence of culture wars, particularly regarding gender. According to Christie, these shifts should give Republicans optimism for future elections.
But there is a crucial second rule: Joe Biden beats Donald Trump. This holds true not only in the 2020 election, but also in the prospect of a rematch. The Democrats’ edge over Trump, Christie argues, lies in Rule Three: a generic Democrat beats a “Trump Republican.” This means that while the GOP may enjoy sociological advantages in some respects, these are negated when Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) politics collide with the broader appeal of the Democratic Party.
Christie’s insight offers a sharp lens into the Republican dilemma, especially with rising stars like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis attempting to challenge Trump’s dominance in the party. DeSantis, widely seen as a potential alternative to Trump, faces significant hurdles in a direct confrontation with the former president. While DeSantis is a strong political figure in his own right, Christie’s analysis suggests that the Republican Party’s internal dynamics and Trump’s continued appeal could undermine his chances.
As the GOP looks to the future, many party members are quietly acknowledging that DeSantis may not have what it takes to unseat Trump in the primary. Despite DeSantis’ popularity in Florida and his ability to appeal to conservative voters, Trump’s entrenched base and the media’s obsession with his brand of politics present significant obstacles. Republican voters may ultimately prefer the familiar, bombastic Trump persona over DeSantis’ more traditional political approach.
This dynamic has led to a sense of fatalism among some Republicans, who understand that their best shot at defeating Biden may be through a candidate who isn’t Trump. However, the question remains: can the GOP break free from Trump’s grip without fracturing the party? For now, it seems unlikely, as the path to the nomination is still very much controlled by Trump’s influence.
The situation is more complicated for Democrats as well. While many Democrats seem blasé about DeSantis, assuming they could easily defeat him in a general election, they are wary of another confrontation with Trump. Given the volatile political landscape and the possibility of a rematch between Biden and Trump, the next election cycle promises to be a turbulent one, with the future of both parties hanging in the balance.
