In releasing Evan Gershkovich and others before November, the Russian president has denied Trump a diplomatic victory.
The recent release of 16 individuals by Russia, described by many as a “prisoner swap,” challenges the conventional use of the term. While some of those freed—such as political figures Vladimir Kara-Murza, Ilya Yashin, and Oleg Orlov—were imprisoned due to their opposition to Putin’s regime, all of them can more accurately be described as hostages, detained to leverage political gains or as part of the Kremlin’s broader strategy.
On a human level, the release of these individuals, including American journalist Evan Gershkovich, is a moment of relief. Gershkovich was detained for over a year in brutal conditions within a Russian prison, solely because of his journalistic work. Similarly, Paul Whelan, who was arrested in 2018 on dubious charges while attending a wedding, had been subjected to nearly six years of harsh penal conditions, following a rigged trial. Alsu Kurmasheva, another journalist, spent nine months imprisoned under severe conditions, unable to communicate with her children.
The timing of this release is highly significant. By freeing these hostages just ahead of the November elections, Putin strategically denied Donald Trump a diplomatic victory that could have bolstered his image as a dealmaker. Trump had been positioning himself as someone who could negotiate such releases, promising to bring Americans home. However, the timing of the release, just months before the election, stripped Trump of the opportunity to claim credit.
This diplomatic maneuver by Putin may be more calculated than it appears. By releasing the hostages before a political figure like Trump could take credit, Putin ensured that no narrative of success could be associated with the former president’s efforts. It seems likely that this move was part of Putin’s broader strategy to avoid giving Trump a platform to gain further political traction.
Despite the positive implications of these releases on a humanitarian level, this act underscores the broader geopolitical calculations at play. In releasing these individuals, Russia simultaneously strengthens its own position by presenting itself as willing to engage in diplomacy while managing to minimize the potential benefits for Western political figures.
The act of releasing hostages might be framed as an example of diplomatic engagement, but in this case, it appears to be about denying others the potential credit for success. For Putin, this is about maintaining control over the narrative while strategically playing the political game ahead of critical elections.
Ultimately, while the hostages’ release is a positive development for those freed and their families, it is also a reminder of how Russia uses people as pawns in its ongoing geopolitical chess game. Putin’s decision to act before November reveals a carefully planned political move aimed at controlling both domestic and international narratives.
