Parties of the Hard Right Are in the Ascendancy Across the Continent – But Their Political Prospects Are Difficult to Gauge
The 9 June 2024 European Parliamentary elections revealed a significant surge in support for hard-right parties across Europe, signaling widespread discontent within the European Union. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) received 31% of the vote, more than doubling the share of the coalition led by Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) made major gains, overtaking Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party to claim second place. Austria saw the anti-immigrant Freedom Party win its first European election, surpassing Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s centre-right People’s Party. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia secured victory, with 28% of the vote, solidifying her influence at home and as a key powerbroker in Europe.
In response to the rise of the far-right, Macron called for a snap legislative election in France, hoping to stave off further gains by Le Pen’s RN. However, this decision has been labeled an “extreme gamble” by France’s leading left-wing newspaper, Libération. If Le Pen’s party continues to perform well, its 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, could emerge as a potential prime minister, signaling a major shift in France’s political landscape.
Despite these gains, the long-term political prospects for Europe’s hard-right parties remain uncertain. While their rise reflects growing dissatisfaction with mainstream parties, questions remain about their ability to form lasting coalitions and secure significant governance power in the face of resistance from established political forces. The current surge in hard-right populism may have reshaped the European political landscape, but its future trajectory is still unclear.
