As conflicts multiply, European countries must agree on consistent principles for asylum policy, as the alternative is anarchy.
The world has entered a new era of mass migration. More than six million refugees have fled Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, while 5.5 million have left Syria since its civil war began in 2011, and 2.7 million have left Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
Yet far from being exceptional, such geopolitical shocks are only likely to become more frequent in future decades. The climate crisis, conflict, and extreme poverty will all increase migratory flows. As Robert D. Kaplan, the American author and foreign policy expert, writes in our cover story, “While the fate of Europe seems today to lie in the east, in Ukraine, as the century progresses it will increasingly lie in the south, as steady migration from south of the Sahara takes hold… Africa will loom larger in our consciousness as we increasingly comprehend how we are all part of the same human family.”
The growing migration flows will require European countries to adapt their asylum policies, yet consensus remains elusive. The response to the ongoing refugee crisis has varied widely across the continent, with countries divided between those who prioritize humanitarian concerns and those focused on national security. The lack of a coordinated European approach has created a patchwork of policies that have fueled public dissatisfaction and political polarization.
If the current situation is to improve, a new framework for asylum and migration policy is urgently needed. This framework must be both humane and sustainable, addressing the root causes of migration while ensuring that Europe can absorb the increasing number of arrivals. The question of how to balance these competing priorities will shape the future of European politics, with implications for stability, unity, and the continent’s relationship with the wider world.
As Europe faces these challenges, the political response will define its future. There are no easy solutions, but the alternative – a chaotic, fragmented approach that leaves countries to fend for themselves – is one that no European government can afford. To maintain peace and prosperity, Europe must confront the realities of migration with both compassion and pragmatism.
