How Israel’s assault on Lebanon could plunge the region into a wider war.
Until 2023, Israel’s security establishment primarily viewed Hezbollah as a greater threat than Hamas. While Hamas launched sporadic rocket attacks from Gaza, its effectiveness was limited by Israel’s defenses, and it appeared more focused on local governance. Hezbollah, however, posed a more formidable threat with an estimated 100,000 fighters and roughly 150,000 missiles and rockets, many of which are precision-guided, thanks to Iran.
Concerns over Hezbollah’s growing power were tempered by hopes that it preferred to avoid war, particularly after its 2006 clash with Israel, which left Lebanon’s infrastructure heavily damaged. Lebanon’s fragile political state has also weighed on Hezbollah’s strategy. The devastating 2020 Beirut port explosion, widely linked to Hezbollah, has further stressed Lebanon’s situation, leaving it without a stable government and divided by internal political conflicts.
Hezbollah’s relationship with Iran shapes its military posture. Iran sees Hezbollah as a vital asset in deterring Israel and the United States, and many believe Iran has advised restraint, using Hezbollah as a strategic counterbalance rather than a force for active conflict. This caution has thus far allowed Hezbollah to amass power without provoking open hostilities.
Israel’s recent actions in Lebanon, however, may shatter this fragile status quo. Airstrikes in southern Lebanese towns, such as Taibeh, risk drawing Hezbollah into an escalated conflict, where it might feel compelled to respond. This raises fears among international observers that the situation could rapidly spiral into a wider regional war.
Hezbollah’s response to Israel’s aggression remains uncertain, yet its recent losses in leadership might pressure it toward action to maintain its credibility. As tensions rise, a miscalculation on either side could lead to a larger confrontation involving Lebanon, Israel, and possibly other regional actors allied with Iran.
For Israel, any push into Lebanon carries significant risks. A prolonged ground invasion could strain its military resources, create further instability in Lebanon, and invite international condemnation. The risks extend beyond Lebanon, potentially prompting Iranian involvement and complicating the geopolitical landscape further.
In the end, Israel’s actions may have unforeseen consequences for the region’s stability. Without restraint, this conflict risks plunging the Middle East into a cycle of retaliations and violence, with lasting implications for both regional and global security.
