Why the party that controls the House will shape the next presidency, whether Harris or Trump wins.
As the 2024 election approaches, Donald Trump’s campaign is taking an unconventional route by planning rallies in solidly Democratic states—areas he has little chance of winning but where his team hopes to highlight the failures of Democratic policies. Over the next few weeks, Trump is scheduled to hold events in Colorado, California, Illinois, and New York, all states that President Joe Biden won by wide margins in 2020.
This strategy is a significant departure from focusing on battleground states, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, which will likely determine the outcome of the election. Campaign advisers say these rallies are designed to attract national media attention and draw attention to the issues Trump has been highlighting, making his message resonate even in the more liberal parts of the country. The most anticipated event will be in New York City at Madison Square Garden, a venue Trump has long eyed for its high visibility.
Despite the unconventional nature of this approach, Trump’s supporters believe his rallies in Democratic states could also help boost down-ballot Republicans in tight congressional races. States like California and New York have competitive House races where the Republican candidates might benefit from Trump’s visibility, especially with narrow margins expected in these areas.
However, critics argue that Trump’s decision to campaign in these states may be a move aimed more at optics and media coverage than targeting areas that could swing the election. It’s widely believed that the race will ultimately hinge on the key battleground states that are in a statistical dead heat in most polling.
Political analysts, including longtime Republican operatives, have raised doubts about whether this strategy is wise. Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist, emphasized that while the rallies might energize Trump’s base, they are not focusing on the critical swing states that will truly decide the election. These states, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, will be crucial in determining whether Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will ultimately win the presidency.
The fight for control of the House is also shaping up to play a significant role in the direction of the next presidency. Experts believe that the winner of the House, whether under Democratic or Republican control, will have significant influence over the agenda of the next administration. With both sides preparing for a tightly contested election, every campaign stop, and strategic move counts as candidates aim to sway voters in the final weeks before Election Day.
