Winning the New Hampshire primary attests to the former president’s enduring grip on the Republican base.
Donald Trump clinched the New Hampshire primary, as predicted by polls, securing an 11-point margin over Nikki Haley, who placed second. While this result was closer than his Iowa victory, it highlights Trump’s continued dominance over the Republican voter base and the disconnect between the party’s grassroots and its establishment representatives like Haley.
Haley, the former UN ambassador, entered New Hampshire with significant advantages, particularly the state’s allowance for undeclared voters—who make up 40% of the electorate—to participate in either party’s primary. Trump warned his supporters that Democrats would exploit this opening to “infiltrate” the primary, boosting Haley’s chances. However, only 3,542 New Hampshire Democrats (0.4% of registered voters) switched to undeclared status ahead of the 6 October deadline, and an even smaller number—around 400—changed their affiliation to Republican.
Despite this, New Hampshire’s same-day voter registration allowed Trump to be concerned about the participation of independents, particularly those with Democratic leanings. In the 2016 primary, Trump won the largest share of New Hampshire independents, and while he still led Haley among Republicans in 2024, his share of independents in Iowa had dropped to just an eight-point margin, compared to a 39-point lead among Republicans. Trump’s worries about independents were further heightened by Chris Sununu, New Hampshire’s popular governor, who campaigned fervently for Haley.
