Science

Global Population May Be Vastly Undercounted, Research Suggests

Study warns rural communities could be significantly overlooked, impacting policies and resource allocation.

A recent study challenges conventional estimates of the world’s population, suggesting that global figures could be vastly underestimated due to the undercounting of rural communities.

The United Nations currently places the world’s population at approximately 8.2 billion, with projections exceeding 10 billion by the mid-2080s. However, research published in Nature Communications indicates that rural populations may have been undercounted by as much as 53 to 84 per cent between 1975 and 2010.

Researchers argue that widely used global population datasets, which rely on national censuses, have fundamental shortcomings, particularly in rural areas. Factors such as inaccessibility, language barriers, and local resistance make it difficult for census enumerators to obtain accurate data.

“In many remote and conflict-affected regions, reaching every household remains a challenge, leading to significant gaps in the reported figures,” the study explains. A striking example is Paraguay’s 2012 census, which researchers believe may have overlooked around 25 per cent of the country’s population.

To assess the accuracy of existing datasets, scientists analysed five of the most commonly used global population models, comparing them with relocation data from over 300 rural dam projects across 35 countries. Compensation records from these projects, considered highly precise, revealed a major discrepancy between reported and actual rural populations.

Findings from 2010 datasets were the most reliable, yet still failed to capture up to 75 per cent of rural inhabitants. Despite improvements over time, researchers believe that even the latest estimates remain flawed.

“The evidence suggests a significant portion of the rural population is absent from global datasets, despite these figures shaping policies worldwide,” said Josias Láng-Ritter of Aalto University, one of the study’s co-authors.

The implications are far-reaching. Around 40 per cent of the global population is believed to live in rural areas, but if figures are underestimated, vital resources—such as healthcare, infrastructure, and transport—may not be adequately allocated.

The study highlights countries such as China, Brazil, Australia, Poland, and Colombia as having particularly noticeable discrepancies, though the issue appears systemic worldwide.

While researchers do not propose a revised global population estimate, they call for improved census methodologies, alternative data collection approaches, and better calibration of population models to address the inaccuracies.

“To ensure equal access to resources for rural populations, a critical reassessment of these datasets is necessary,” Dr Láng-Ritter concluded.

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