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The Curse of Stability in Niger

For many West Africans, the word is synonymous with economic and political asphyxiation.

There are plenty of reasons for what we normally call the developed world to take an avid interest in the military coup in Niger. When military vehicles started surrounding the Presidential Palace in the capital, Niamey, on 26 July, it felt like both the first and the final piece of a complicated line of dominoes.

The final piece: since 2020, in quick succession, there has been a series of successful coups in a belt extending from Sudan on the Red Sea to Guinea on the Atlantic. Only Niger escaped. In Mali and Burkina Faso, those coups created something of a geopolitical fracture, with the new regimes breaking their political and military links to France and embracing Russia. In Mali, the Wagner Group is now effectively in charge.

Niger’s coup was not an isolated event but part of a broader shift in West Africa, where frustrations with Western-backed governments and foreign influence have been growing. The coup represents the culmination of a series of failed promises of stability, growth, and prosperity under the status quo. For many in the region, the idea of stability has become synonymous with stagnation and economic asphyxiation, where entrenched political elites protect their interests at the expense of the people.

The coup in Niger has further deepened the fracture between former colonial powers and African nations seeking to redefine their futures. As the West struggles to regain influence in the region, Russia’s growing presence, especially through groups like Wagner, is providing a new avenue for those disillusioned with the traditional power structures. The future of Niger and its neighbors is now uncertain, as the region continues to grapple with the complexities of external influence, internal conflict, and the desire for change.

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