The success of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France’s parliamentary elections has annihilated the president’s power base.
Emmanuel Macron’s political future looks increasingly bleak. When the first-round results of the French parliamentary elections emerged on 30 June, Macron’s final hope was that a tactical voting alliance between the left and the center would unite against the growing influence of Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Rally (RN). Instead, the French electorate seems to have consolidated against Macron himself.
The surge of the National Rally in the first round was expected, but what was unexpected was the large number of constituencies where three parties, rather than the usual two, will face off in the second-round runoffs scheduled for 7 July. This has led to a political landscape reminiscent of the UK’s first-past-the-post system, with multiple candidates competing for votes in traditionally safe areas. Marine Le Pen’s RN does not need to secure an outright majority in these areas. All they need is to remain the leading party in these contested constituencies.
This shift marks a significant turning point in French politics. The fragmentation of the electoral landscape, combined with the increasing strength of the far-right, has exposed cracks in Macron’s centrist base. His political dominance, which had previously defined much of French governance, is now eroding rapidly.
Macron had hoped that the growing threat of the far-right would push left-wing voters into supporting his centrist bloc. Instead, what we are seeing is a fracture of traditional political alliances. As the RN continues to rise, Macron’s ability to control the agenda seems to be slipping further out of reach. His vision of a united France under his leadership now appears to be a distant ideal.
This shift in power is not just a defeat for Macron, but a realignment of French politics. The rise of the RN signals a growing discontent with the political establishment. Many voters, frustrated with years of centrist governance, are now flocking to the National Rally as an alternative to the traditional political elites.
In the coming weeks, as the second-round results are tallied, France will be forced to confront the reality of a much more fragmented political landscape. For Macron, this represents a devastating blow to his presidency, as the rise of the hard-right National Rally challenges not only his power but the very future of his political movement.
