While some Democrats are worried, Trump’s campaign is emboldened by the tight race.
In a closely contested race with 14 months remaining until the 2024 election, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are polling neck-and-neck. This has led to mixed reactions among Democrats, with some expressing alarm over the tight race, while Biden’s campaign officials and allies downplay the significance of the polls at this early stage. However, Democratic strategists agree on one thing: despite Trump’s legal troubles and criminal charges, his political standing remains strong, making the outcome of the election uncertain.
A recent CNN poll showed Trump leading Biden by one percentage point, 47% to 46%. Additionally, a Wall Street Journal survey and a New York Times/Siena College poll both found the two candidates tied. These numbers indicate that Trump is performing better in the polls than he did in 2020, when he trailed Biden by a significant margin. Some strategists, such as Dan Pfeiffer, warn that the close race, though concerning, is part of the polarized political landscape, where small numbers of voters can make all the difference in the outcome.
Two main factors are contributing to the close polling. First, there is growing concern within Biden’s base. The president is struggling to maintain the support of Democratic voters, with Biden’s approval among 2020 Democratic voters slipping to around 87%, down from 95% in 2020. Second, Biden is facing challenges in his support among nonwhite voters, especially Black and Latino voters. While he secured 92% of the Black vote in 2020, recent polls show his support has dropped to just 71%. These shifts, combined with Trump’s solidified base, are making the race more competitive as Election Day approaches.
