In the days following Tehran’s missile and drone attack on Israel, flights out of Tel Aviv were booked solid.
What exactly does imminent mean? Today? Tomorrow? The warning from unnamed US officials on Wednesday 10 April about an Iranian attack on Israel seemed to tear a page from the same playbook used before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Tell the world publicly what you’re seeing in your secret US intelligence. Hope that might just stop it. It didn’t change Vladimir Putin’s mind, but no harm trying it again. With this echo of history ringing in my ears, I delay my Thursday flight from Tel Aviv to London.
On Sunday 14 April, in the dead of night, Iran unleashes what it sees as its “carefully calibrated” move. Israel announces that only 1 percent of 350 drones and missiles hit their mark. “Take it as a win,” its allies declare. For Israel, 1 percent is too much.
The air was heavy with tension and the international community’s collective anxiety. The missiles and drones sent by Tehran were not only physical projectiles, but also symbolic, heralding a new stage in regional geopolitics where Iran’s military strategy is no longer only a matter of proxy wars, but direct confrontation. This is a departure from previous Iranian tactics, where a more covert influence was the norm. The missile strikes were the first signs of Tehran’s new doctrine, a more overt stance that suggests it may no longer shy away from escalating its confrontations with Israel.
The consequences of this shift were felt almost immediately in Tel Aviv, where flights were booked solid. Some saw this as a sign that Israel was on edge, its civilian population bracing for the potential of a broader war. Others, however, viewed it as an overreaction, given the low success rate of the strikes. Nevertheless, it was a reminder of how fragile peace in the region is, especially with Iran actively expanding its military footprint in the Middle East.
As Tehran’s attacks hit Israel’s borders, the larger question emerged: how would Israel respond? The “1 percent” success rate of the drones might seem insignificant, but it proved the vulnerability of even the most advanced military technologies. Israel’s Iron Dome, which has historically been lauded for its interception capabilities, failed to stop the attack entirely. This failure added fuel to the ongoing debates about the limits of Israel’s defense systems.
On the international front, the attack sparked alarm in capitals across the world. The United States, having already provided Israel with significant military aid, was left to grapple with its strategic choices. A direct military escalation could trigger a wider regional conflict, potentially drawing in other actors, such as Hezbollah and militias supported by Iran in Iraq and Syria. This complex web of alliances and enmities could transform the attack into something much larger.
Iran’s decision to strike in such a bold and visible way also raised the question of whether this was a sign of greater confidence in its ability to confront the West and Israel, or a desperate gambit to establish its dominance in the region. Either way, Tehran’s new doctrine, one that combines both military might and political influence, is reshaping the dynamics of the Middle East. The days following the attack saw flights booked out of Tel Aviv, as Israel braced for the consequences of this new phase in Iran’s confrontational strategy.
